Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 4.391032 5.208494 6.114998 7.191824 8.432971 9.815423 11.468513
2025-05-18 2.938560 3.966554 5.237376 6.910253 9.039055 11.640799 15.042271
2025-05-25 2.039832 3.087210 4.510601 6.555282 9.379897 13.101690 18.324738
2025-06-01 1.540087 2.577481 4.107870 6.475299 9.976737 14.882117 22.168649
2025-06-08 1.195005 2.192408 3.776796 6.393876 10.501212 16.565540 26.016265
2025-06-15 1.027292 2.040364 3.754547 6.746369 11.678140 19.278508 31.590614
2025-06-22 0.846684 1.818545 3.567476 6.785969 12.344354 21.261547 36.235531
2025-06-29 0.700598 1.622492 3.381686 6.784126 12.919503 23.131755 40.849900
2025-07-06 0.581996 1.450096 3.202630 6.755857 13.427755 24.919175 45.464996
2025-07-13 0.546325 1.443635 3.338214 7.324679 15.049827 28.711247 53.706442
2025-07-20 0.484674 1.363668 3.309736 7.566827 16.090752 31.580151 60.596320
2025-07-27 0.435000 1.299635 3.301969 7.844855 17.222032 34.694930 68.142955
2025-08-03 0.369243 1.181451 3.160502 7.837622 17.823140 36.950554 74.443027
2025-08-10 0.298297 1.029502 2.912939 7.564649 17.860615 38.168679 78.980675
2025-08-17 0.235673 0.880784 2.641217 7.190428 17.635405 38.854286 82.574656
2025-08-24 0.197525 0.793204 2.504637 7.107249 18.018388 40.757938 88.629160
2025-08-31 0.165699 0.715021 2.375786 7.020096 18.377250 42.636188 94.768063
2025-09-07 0.154330 0.703761 2.430456 7.403305 19.849200 46.924021 105.998792
2025-09-14 0.134016 0.652742 2.359291 7.446459 20.526579 49.588878 114.120261
2025-09-21 0.115477 0.601575 2.276472 7.444515 21.093351 52.058548 122.008283
2025-09-28 0.099021 0.552335 2.188592 7.413847 21.583942 54.397255 129.779183
2025-10-05 0.097847 0.569373 2.320590 8.031143 23.767326 60.659624 146.271885
2025-10-12 0.089621 0.551323 2.331010 8.293787 25.067659 65.020468 158.939873